Tuesday, July 7, 2009
In search of the "Google Black Swan" ..& being fooled by randomness !
those famed prophecies...
"Those who live by the sword , shall die by the sword"
"When you succeed by free , you going to die by free"
and some reality checks..
"Those who gained by "Closed Systems" Monopoly ; got vanquished by "Open Systems" upstarts.
We know that there are no free lunches in this dog eat do world and the tech business did it well by "Cannibalizing it own before some one else did" to create the next new.
"For Google, who lives and dies by free, we dont (sic) know who their Black Swan company will be. But we all know it will happen don't we? The only question is when. Of course Google knows it as well. Which is exactly why they invest in everything and anything they possibly can that they believe can create another business they can depend on in the future. They are spending incredible amounts of money in search of the "next big Google thing." When their Black Swan competitor appears, they won't be in a position to compete with the newly presented model, particularly if its free based because their ecosystem has bloated to the point where they can no longer create anything for free." - Mark Cuban
"A person who spots a Black Swan" is an Oxymoron. Black Swan is rarely predicted and spotted in hindsight. All the while we are at least aware that we are being fooled by randomness.
Black Swan. Yes indeed! And I am not sure if Google has been able to come up with "that” substantial which the world will lap up in a hurry. No it isn't "bing" or "cuil" or "wolframAlfa”. May be the dimensions of the future big thing will have the essence in ubiquity which twitter offers today.
What will drive this is in the proof points we saw in the recent time on how the world shrunk to celebrate an "Obama" triumph or mourn "Michael Jackson's" untimely demise.ONLINE. The vehicles which anchored the above events is a sneak peak in to the bold future ahead. Advertisements will go where the next block buster will. So Google is in many ways in a precarious position waiting to be scarified in the altar of "the next big thing" . The change to the next big thing will be swift and unprecedented.
In my view general Information & News based content must be free. Intellectual Property, Artistic, Scientific, Economic and the likes which devour investments in creation, research and development must be monetized appropriately.
The rules of engagement in a flat world scenario are being formulated and in a state of elementary work in progress. Free was a leveler but not sustainable perennially. There will be a crowd.Crowd around the next value creation hub and ad’s too will gravitate.
Google and the others are media companies in many certain ways. There is more to life than what media as in industry can represent as.Advertisements is a promotion of another business and they will be placed where the crowd assembles. At traffic signals or cross roads. Is Google at a signal or at cross road ?
Hence only "ad" based revenue won’t work. Plus serious innovation like the one "@ apple" has to be paid for, bought paying green dollars. It cost money to innovate.Free will work for some time. But to sustain there must be serious economic activity yielding sustainable profitability, solving issues unlocking the many myriad potentials of life. "Search" was a good business idea. “Connect” was a good enough predecessor followed by “Share” as a successor.
Next may be centered around "Create"!!
There isn’t another power in the World Greater then “Create”. Life is about Creation.
Create WHAT is the big question ?? Is it going to wear a flatGREEN theme ??